COVID-19 or Scavenging for Toilet Paper?

Given the recent COVID-19 pandemic, we now live in a surreal world that seemed to change overnight. We’ve been simultaneously told that COVID-19 is just a mean flu, and at the same time, we hear that the mere act of touching our eyes, nose or mouth could be enough to trigger viral pneumonia. All the while our cultural lexicon has incorporated new terms that just a few weeks ago many of us had never heard… “social distancing,” “flattening the curve,” “severe acute respiratory syndrome,” etc. Add another one to the list R nought (or subscript zero). 

This is the basic reproduction number. It is the anticipated number of new cases generated by an infected individual barring any containment measures, (i.e. vaccination, effective medications, isolation). The R number for COVID-19 is 1.4-3.9. By comparison, the seasonal flu is 0.9-2.1 and Measles is 12-18. 

If you saw the movie I Am Legend, you may recall that a cure for cancer had been engineered from the Measles virus. The use of viral vector gene therapy is very much real, and one way in which gene editing can take place. Though it’s yet to result in Zombies. The actual Measles virus is a true airborne virus, which is part of the reason it’s so contagious. So when Will Smith’s character gives exposition to the effect that there is an airborne strain of the virus; this is grounded in the actual fact based on the fictional use of Measles as a viral skeleton. 

COVID-19 is very contagious, and unlike seasonal flu, there is no preexisting herd immunity from either vaccination or large scale exposure. Therefore, flattening the curve is a necessity based on our healthcare infrastructure and the danger posed by viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress. However, as you may have noticed, the area under the curve remains the same whether quickly peaking or stretched out. Potentially the same number of cases could arise. The only positive is that there will exist the ability to adequately treat the sick, thus saving more lives. 

You’ve probably had private conversations already where you’ve questioned the actions taken in an effort to contain the spread. The economy is being impacted in unprecedented ways. Hardship is already befalling millions as evidenced by the recent unemployment claims filed in the last week. The ultimate ramifications will not be known for many, many months. When it will end is uncertain and cause for great anxiety. The philosophical thought experiment that much of the nation now contemplates is: at what point will diseases of despair constitute a public health crisis greater than the one we currently face. The sad truth is it may never be fully quantified. 

We have much to consider as we “shelter in place.” There might even be time to binge watch fictional Zombie Apocalypse shows, which gives rise to another question: when have you seen survivors on The Walking Dead scavenging for toilet paper?

Brian Hanrahan, MS Anatomy and Cell Biology,

Graduate Certificate in Public Health,

Graduate/Professional Student